The week's dominant story was a collision between a hawkish US jobs surprise and a fresh flare-up in the Iran–US conflict. Dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and a soft ADP print mid-week briefly revived hopes the Fed would hold rates steady at its September 15–16 meeting, pulling the dollar lower and lifting gold, silver and crypto. That reprieve reversed sharply on Friday when August Nonfarm Payrolls smashed expectations (+162,000 vs. +55,000 forecast, unemployment steady at 4.1%), reviving Fed hike bets and hitting precious metals hard into the close. Separately, the US launched a second wave of strikes on Iran within a three-day span and Tehran retaliated by targeting US bases and shipping near Kuwait, pushing Brent above $97 mid-week before President Trump said the latest strikes "would be short-lived," pulling some of the risk premium back out of oil by Friday.
Closing prices, Friday, September 4, 2026: EUR/USD – 1.1614 | Brent Crude – $95.85 | Gold (XAU/USD) – $4,477.20 | Silver (XAG/USD) – $66.82 | Bitcoin – $81,100 | Ethereum – $2,524
Key calendar, September 7–11: Mon – US and Canadian markets closed for Labor Day. Wed – China CPI. Thu – ECB interest rate decision, Germany CPI, US PPI, weekly jobless claims. Fri – US CPI and core CPI (August), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (preliminary). The Iran/Hormuz standoff remains the main unscheduled risk, with reports of a possible US–Iran meeting in Pakistan this weekend.
EUR/USD
Closed at 1.1614 (prev. week 1.1585; 52-week range 1.1325–1.2079; daily: Strong Buy, weekly: Strong Buy). The euro added around 0.25% on the week, helped mid-week by dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and a soft ADP print that briefly revived hopes the Fed would hold rates steady, before Friday's blowout Nonfarm Payrolls report reignited hike bets and pulled the pair back off its weekly high.
Resistance: 1.1660, 1.1710, 1.1760 – Support: 1.1580, 1.1500, 1.1450
Baseline view: constructive while the pair holds above 1.1580, but Thursday's ECB decision and Friday's US CPI could swing direction sharply either way. Base case: 1.1450–1.1760.
Brent Crude Oil
Closed at $95.85 (prev. week $88.28; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41; daily: Strong Buy, weekly: Strong Buy). Brent surged nearly 9% on the week after the US launched a fresh wave of strikes on Iran and Tehran retaliated by targeting US bases and shipping near Kuwait, briefly pushing prices above $97. Gains were pared into Friday's close after President Trump said the latest round of strikes on Iran "would be short-lived," easing the near-term supply-disruption premium.
Resistance: $97.50, $100.00, $103.00 – Support: $94.00, $91.50, $88.00
Baseline view: bullish while the Hormuz risk premium persists, with $100 the next psychological test; reports of a possible US–Iran meeting in Pakistan this weekend are the main downside risk. Base case: $88–$103.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Closed at $4,477.20 (prev. week $4,504.10; 52-week range $3,511.19–$5,595.46; daily: Buy, weekly: Strong Buy). Gold slipped around 0.6% on the week, having earlier rallied on Waller's dovish comments and the Iran–US escalation, before tumbling over 1% on Friday as the much stronger than expected Nonfarm Payrolls report revived Fed hike bets and lifted the dollar and yields.
Resistance: $4,550, $4,650, $4,750 – Support: $4,400, $4,320, $4,250
Baseline view: the medium-term debasement and safe-haven narrative stays intact, but a hot US CPI print on Friday would extend the near-term pullback before buyers can regroup. Base case: $4,250–$4,750.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Closed at $66.82 (prev. week $66.26; 52-week range $41.15–$121.79; daily: Neutral, weekly: Strong Buy). Silver added just under 1% on the week but fell over 3% on Friday alone, sliding from a mid-week high near $71 as the stronger than expected jobs report overwhelmed silver's dual role as an industrial metal and safe-haven asset. The gold/silver ratio held near 67.
Resistance: $69.00, $71.00, $73.50 – Support: $64.50, $62.00, $60.00
Baseline view: bullish medium-term on the deficit and industrial-demand narrative, but near-term direction now hinges on Thursday's ECB decision and Friday's US CPI. Base case: $60.00–$73.50.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Trading near $81,100 (prev. week $77,470; 52-week range $57,877–$126,110; daily: Strong Buy, weekly: Strong Buy). Bitcoin gained around 5% on the week and cleared $81,000 for the first time in nearly a week, helped by cooling rate-hike fears mid-week and a fresh wave of spot-ETF inflows, before Friday's payrolls beat briefly capped the advance.
Resistance: $83,000, $86,000, $90,000 – Support: $78,000, $75,000, $72,000
Baseline view: constructive while spot-ETF inflows persist, with a decisive close above $83,000 opening the way toward $86,000–$90,000. Base case: $72,000–$90,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Trading near $2,524 (prev. week $2,431; 52-week range $1,507.05–$4,765.41; daily: Strong Buy, weekly: Strong Buy). Ether rallied around 4% on the week, tracking Bitcoin's ETF-driven advance, with continued institutional inflows into spot ETH ETFs remaining the key source of structural support.
Resistance: $2,600, $2,750, $2,900 – Support: $2,400, $2,300, $2,150
Baseline view: bullish medium-term while institutional ETF inflows continue, though a pullback toward $2,300–$2,400 would be a healthy retest after the week's gains. Base case: $2,150–$2,900.
Conclusion
Thursday's ECB rate decision and Friday's US CPI report (August) are the week's key scheduled events, arriving on the heels of a much stronger than expected August Nonfarm Payrolls report that has firmed up bets on a September 15–16 Fed hike; Monday's US and Canadian Labor Day holiday will thin early-week liquidity. The Iran/Hormuz standoff remains the main unscheduled risk, with a possible US–Iran meeting reported for this weekend in Pakistan. EUR/USD at 1.1614: base case 1.1450–1.1760. Brent at $95.85: base case $88–$103. Gold at $4,477.20: base case $4,250–$4,750. Silver at $66.82: base case $60.00–$73.50. Bitcoin at $81,100: base case $72,000–$90,000. Ethereum at $2,524: base case $2,150–$2,900.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
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