The week of June 22–26 saw Brent crude collapse almost 10% as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated toward pre-war volumes and Saudi Arabia resumed loading at Ras Tanura, even as Iran fired drones at a vessel near the strait on Friday. The US Core PCE Price Index (Wednesday) came in line with forecasts (+0.3% m/m, +3.4% y/y – the highest since October 2023), yet markets still price roughly 63% odds of a September Fed hike and 80% for December, and the Dollar Index hit its highest level in over a year. Tuesday’s flash PMIs showed Eurozone activity contracting at the fastest pace since 2024. Gold and silver were both hit hard by the stronger dollar, while Bitcoin finally broke the $60,000 “critical floor” flagged in the prior two forecasts, touching a fresh 52-week low near $58,100 amid continued ETF outflows and a $10.6 billion options expiry. The CLARITY Act remains stalled in the Senate over ethics and developer-protection disputes.
Closing prices, Friday June 26, 2026:
EUR/USD – 1.1384 | Brent Crude – $72.60 | Gold (XAU/USD) – $4,096.30 | Silver (XAG/USD) – $59.22 | Bitcoin – $59,890 | Ethereum – $1,555
Key macro calendar, June 29–July 3: Monday: no major releases – a quiet start to a holiday-shortened week. Tuesday: US JOLTS Job Openings (May); Consumer Confidence; Chicago PMI. Wednesday: Eurozone flash CPI (June); US ADP Employment Change; ISM Manufacturing PMI. Thursday: US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate (June, released a day early; consensus ~165–175K); Initial Jobless Claims; ISM Services PMI. Friday: US markets closed for Independence Day (July 4 falls on a Saturday).
EUR/USD
EUR/USD closed at 1.1384 (prev. week close 1.1469; 52-week range 1.1325–1.2079, a new low set this week; daily rating: Strong Sell). The pair pierced last week’s 52-week low before stabilizing, pressured by the broad dollar rally and weak Eurozone PMIs, even as Lagarde said the ECB does not need to respond more aggressively to Middle East-driven inflation.
Wednesday’s Eurozone flash CPI and Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls are the week’s key drivers. A hot NFP risks a fresh 52-week low; a soft print or a stalled dollar rally reopens 1.1470+.
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1470, 1.1550 │ Support: 1.1325 (52-week low), 1.1280, 1.1230
Baseline view: Bearish, dollar-driven, after a fresh 52-week low. Base case: 1.1280–1.1480.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent closed at $72.60 (prev. week close $80.57; 52-week range $58.72–$126.41; daily signal: Strong Sell, weekly: Strong Sell, monthly: Neutral). Brent shed close to 10% on the week – its lowest level since February 27 – as Hormuz traffic normalized and Goldman Sachs cut its Q4 forecast to $80 from $90; Friday’s Iranian drone strike on a vessel near the strait was a reminder the de-escalation isn’t complete.
Postponed US–Iran technical talks are reportedly set to resume this week. A smooth resumption favors $68–$70; a fresh attack or stalled talks could spark a bounce to $78–$82.
Resistance: $75.00, $78.00, $82.00 │ Support: $70.00, $68.00, $65.00
Baseline view: Bearish on Hormuz-normalization momentum, but with meaningful two-sided geopolitical risk. Base case: $68–$78.
Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold closed at $4,096.30 (prev. week close $4,172.90; 52-week range $3,247.86–$5,595.46; daily rating: Strong Sell, weekly: Strong Sell, monthly: Buy). Gold fell to an eight-month low near $3,960 midweek on the dollar’s surge to a 13-month high, before rebounding over 1% on Friday as the in-line core PCE print eased imminent-hike fears – its fourth straight weekly decline.
Thursday’s payrolls report is the key catalyst: a hot print risks a retest of $3,960–$4,000; a soft print allows a recovery toward $4,150–$4,200. Goldman Sachs ($5,400) and JPMorgan ($5,900) year-end targets remain intact.
Resistance: $4,150, $4,200, $4,300 │ Support: $4,000, $3,960, $3,900
Baseline view: Cautiously bearish near-term as Fed hike repricing dominates. Base case: $3,960–$4,200.
Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver closed at $59.22 (prev. week close $64.91; 52-week range $35.28–$121.67; daily rating: Strong Sell, weekly: Strong Sell, monthly: Buy). Silver fell almost 10% on the week, briefly dipping below $57, as it absorbed both stronger-dollar pressure and a softer industrial-demand backdrop; the gold/silver ratio widened to roughly 69 from ~64 the prior week.
Thursday’s payrolls and Wednesday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI are the dominant catalysts. A hawkish-confirming NFP risks $55–$57; a softer dollar and stabilizing industrial data could spark a bounce to $63–$66.
Resistance: $61.50, $64.00, $66.50 │ Support: $57.00, $55.00, $52.00
Baseline view: Bearish; chart structure remains severely damaged after a second straight double-digit weekly decline. Base case: $55–$63.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin closed near $59,890 (prev. week close $63,300; 52-week range ~$58,100–$126,200, a new low set this week; daily rating: Strong Sell). Bitcoin broke the $60,000 “critical floor” flagged in the prior two forecasts, touching a fresh low near $58,100 midweek before stabilizing. Spot ETF outflows continued, Strategy’s leveraged BTC model came under renewed scrutiny, and a ~$10.6 billion BTC/ETH options expiry added volatility into the weekend. The Fear & Greed Index sits in the mid-teens (Extreme Fear).
The CLARITY Act’s stalled Senate timeline – analysts flag end-of-July as a hard deadline – is now the key crypto-specific swing factor alongside Thursday’s payrolls data.
Resistance: $61,000, $63,000, $65,000 │ Support: $58,700, $58,100 (52-week low), $55,000
Baseline view: Bearish, structurally damaged after losing the long-flagged $60,000 floor. Base case: $56,000–$62,000.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Ethereum closed near $1,555 (prev. week close $1,710; 52-week range $1,388–$4,956; daily rating: Strong Sell). ETH underperformed Bitcoin again, falling almost 8% on the week, though it held above the $1,388 floor. The price action masks a mixed on-chain picture: some long-dormant wallets sold, while treasury firm Sharplink bought ETH for the first time in eight months and exchange supply continues to tighten.
The CLARITY Act remains ETH’s most asymmetric catalyst. A weekly close above $1,700 would suggest the recovery attempt has legs; a break of $1,500 reopens a retest of $1,388.
Resistance: $1,600, $1,700, $1,850 │ Support: $1,500, $1,450, $1,388 (52-week low)
Baseline view: Cautiously bearish. The $1,500 level is the line in the sand. Base case: $1,480–$1,700.
Conclusion
The week of June 29–July 3 is holiday-shortened, with Thursday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (released a day early) the biggest scheduled catalyst, alongside Wednesday’s Eurozone flash CPI and ISM Manufacturing PMI; US markets are closed Friday for Independence Day. The Iran/Hormuz situation remains the key unscheduled wildcard after Friday’s drone incident, with talks reportedly resuming this week. EUR/USD at 1.1384: a hot NFP risks a fresh 52-week low. Brent at $72.60: Hormuz-normalization favors $68–$70 unless talks falter. Gold at $4,096.30: base case $3,960–$4,200. Silver at $59.22: base case $55–$63. Bitcoin at $59,890: having lost the $60,000 floor, the CLARITY Act’s Senate timeline is now the key swing factor. Ethereum at $1,555: the $1,500 level is the line in the sand.
NordFX Analytical Group
Disclaimer: These materials are not an investment recommendation or a guide for working on financial markets and are for informational purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a complete loss of deposited funds.
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